The Arab-Israeli War of 1973: How Iraq could have changed the course of history

For some reason, I've been itching to write about this for quite some time now, but it's just that there aren't any related marked events that are happening in the Middle East for me to relate to and write about it now. But I'll just put it in writing anyway.

The Arab-Israeli War of 1973 (the Yom Kippur War)

Israel vs Syria + Egypt

Israeli Prime Minister: Golda Meir

vs

Syria President: Hafez al-Assad
Egyptian President: Anwar Sadat

Situation before the war between Israel vs Egypt and Syria in 1973. In light green are the areas occupied by Israel.

The October War of 1973 was a war between Israel and the Arab armies of Egypt and Syria (with reinforcements from other Arab states). Egypt wanted to reclaim back Sinai that is part of Egypt, but occupied by Israel six years earlier in the 1967 six day war. Syria also lost the Golan Heights to Israel in 1967 and also plan to retake back the land. Both the countries decided to launch a war and simultaneously attacked Israel on the 6th of October 1973.

It resulted in the reclaiming back of a sliver of territory on the Sinai peninsular by Egypt, as well as the occupation of certain areas of the west bank of the Suez Canal as well as large areas in Syria by Israel. It was a victory for the Israeli army, however it led to the eventual negotiations which culminated in the withdrawal of Israel from the entire Sinai Peninsular in 1979. The war itself lasted for two weeks from the 6th of October until the 23rd of October 1973. The real loser of the war however, was Syria.

Although the result of the war was far from what the Arab states of Egypt and Syria expected, which was the reclaiming of some or all of their territories lost to Israel in 1967, Egypt managed to hold on to certain reclaimed territories, but Syria however, gained zero territories and worse still, lost more territories during the course of war to the Israeli advancing army.

For the Syrian side, the outcome of the war could have been rather different if several key decisions were taken during the course of the war. One particular event that was planned but never took place, but could have provide respite for the Syrians, was the planned counter attack by the Arab armies on the 23rd of October on Israel. The counter-attack however, never took place, because the war had ended by then.

Syria's front

The Syrians launched the 1973 war with Egypt to reclaim back the lost Golan Heights, that was occupied by Israel in 1967. In the early days of the war, Syrian troops did make significant gains and managed to advance into Golan and forcing the Israelis to retreat. However, these successes were short-lived, and only three days through the war, October 8th, Syrian forces started to retreat back after the Israelis managed to mount a successful counter-attack. By the 9th of October, the last unit of the Syrian army withdrew from Golan.

Iraq had decided to send their army to assist Syria and send two armored divisions to Syria in phases. Despite having to march for 1000km from Iraq, the Iraqi army arrived on October 11th to the welcome of the Syrian populace who begged them to "save their honor". At this time, the Israelis had already repulsed the Syrian army from Golan, and were advancing into Syria.

Iraqi soldiers that were sent to Syria

The Iraqi army were fatigued once they reached the outskirts of Damascus, but were given the orders to immediately attack the Israeli soldiers, which they did. Their performance was markedly poor due to no coordination with the Syrian general command, and they themselves did not display much coordination. However, they managed to assist the Syrians from facing a total collapse of their army.
The Iraqi participation in the war can be described as a huge relief to the Syrian front. What it did was bolster the Syrian defenses from the incessant pounding by the Israeli army.

Raad el-Hamdany told al-Jazeera in an interview for the October War documentary, that the timing of the arrival of the Iraqi army was perfect, if it was 24 hours later, it would have been much difficult to stop the advancing Israelis, and they could have reached the gates of Damascus. Apart from ground forces, 60 fighter jets were flown to Syria to assist the Syrian army.

An Iraqi tank attacking Israeli columns

The major counter-attack of 23rd October

On the 23rd of October, the Arab armies of Syria, Jordan and Iraq were to launch a coordinated major offensive to drive out the Israelis that was at the time only a few kilometers within Damascus, the capital of Syria, as well as they were constantly shelling the city. 

On the 22nd of October, the Egyptian president Anwar al-Sadat accepted a United Nations brokered ceasefire, without the agreement of the Syrian President Hafez al-Assad. Upon hearing this, Assad was scared that the Israeli army now could focus solely on the Golan without the Egyptians able to assist him any longer. 

On the 23rd of October, Assad decided that he would cancel the major offensive and he himself accepted a ceasefire. The Iraqi army then decided to return to Iraq.

The Israeli advance in Syria. The counterattack was supposed to liberate all the blue colored line areas for Syria.

What could have happened?

It is a question of whether the 23rd planned counterattack could have achieved its goal of recapturing the Golan. Assuming that nothing changed, a major offensive by the combined armies could have been able to drive Israel back and out of Golan with the Iraqis being the sole biggest contributor to the Arab reinforcements.

The Russian Soviets, being allies of Syria, was involved in the war and provided assistance. They were able to replace many of the damaged Syrian tanks, as well as Soviet technicians were able to repair damaged Syrian tanks. The Soviet military aid would have continued and there could be a possibility that the Arab forces would be able to have better coordination between themselves in this counterattack, as it has been two weeks of fighting and they had a lot of time to consider the importance of that. 

Other Arab states armies apart from Jordan and Iraq also would be expected to have increased their presence and aid as time progressed, to the Syrian front. Several armies that could have arrived but was too late included the Sudanese force, who arrived after the war ended. All these support would have been able to be utilized to deal with a slightly longer war to drive the Israelis out of Syria. 

In my view, although it was quite possible to have driven the Israelis out, it would be very difficult and it would take a slightly longer time frame, and well as it would have needed the constant support of the various Arab armies. Further attacks into Israel proper is least probable because the element of surprise is gone, and the Arab war effort might not have what it takes in terms of military prowess and ingenuity to invade Israel.

At the end however, Israel did withdraw back from their occupied areas in Syria except for Golan. Israel annexed it in 1984 and to this day it remains under Israel. Syria did not mount any serious efforts to reclaim Golan after the war. However, the presence of the Iraqis were able to slow down and in certain cases stop altogether the Israeli advances into Syria during the war.